538 Presidential Election 2024 Forecast. Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. As a result of census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024.
Kamala harris moved into a narrow lead in our final update, with her chance of winning rising from 50% to 56%. 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing democrat kamala harris’s and republican donald trump’s chances of winning.